Respected music business analyst Mark Mulligan is estimating that Apple Music will have nearly 8m subs at the end of 2015, a number which will more than double in 2016.
The figure comes within Midia Research’s new ‘Predictions for 2016’ report.
Within the music section of the report, Mulligan (pictured inset) notes that Apple Music ‘went from zero to the No.2 streaming service in a matter of months in mid-2015’.
He then confidently states that this growth has slowed a little in recent months, but will still attract “just under 8m” subscribers by the end of this year.
He forecasts that Apple Music should hit around 20m subscribers by the end of 2016 – which won’t quite catch Spotify, but will solidify the platform’s position as the market’s No.2.
“The wildcards in the equation are whether Apple can do a better job of pushing users from iTunes Radio to Apple Music and what happens when Spotify restates its subscriber number to reflect the impact of $1 a month 3 month trials,” writes Mulligan.
“Apple might not have found the subscription market plain sailing but it has still managed to establish itself with astounding pace.”
The analyst told MBW this morning: “Apple might not have found the subscription market quite the plain sailing it had anticipated but it has still managed to establish itself as the second player with astounding pace. Its platform and marketing assets are well known, but its clear commitment to making Apple Music work have surprised some.
“If Apple finds growth tough going, expect it to throw everything it has got at getting the labels to agree to lower price point products so it can open up large chunks of the iTunes music customer base.”
According to figures announced on October 20 this year, Apple Music had attracted 6.5m paying subscribers nearly four months after launch.
That meant it had retained 60% of the 11m trialists who tested the service in its opening three months, following its worldwide arrival on June 30.
The new MIDiA report has been made available on the firm’s subscription service.
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