The global music business is about to explode thanks to streaming – and its biggest rights-holders are going to be worth a fortune.
That’s the overriding message in a new report from Goldman Sachs, which predicts that global revenues from paid music streaming will hit $28bn by 2030 – up 16% on its previous forecasts.
You don’t have to be a calculus whizz to understand just how optimistic a view this is: according to the IFPI, total (recorded) global streaming revenues reached $4.56bn last year, up 60.4% on 2015.
Goldman is now predicting that these revenues will jump by more than 500% over the next 13 years.
It also forecasts that total paid streaming subscribers will hit 847m by 2030 – a rise of more than 700m compared to the end of 2016.
Goldman predicts that total annual streaming revenues, including ad-funded, will hit $34bn by 2030, with the overall recorded industry worth $41bn a year.
Unsurprisingly, the investment giant believes such increases will have a marked effect on the worth of music’s biggest rights-holders.
Goldman analysts including Lisa Yang suggest that the likes of Sony Music and Universal Music Group will typically “receive 55%-60% of royalties for every piece of content that is being monetized” in the future.
As a result, Goldman has today upped its valuation of UMG by 16% to €19.5bn ($23.5bn) from €16.8bn.
The firm has also increased its price target for shares of Universal parent Vivendi, up 8% to €25.20 per share.
Sony doesn’t miss out on the good vibes, either.
Goldman’s price target for Sony Corp has been pushed up 2% to ¥5,600 ($51.60).
The financial firm reportedly called the Japanese company “an undervalued content giant”.
Universal Music Group was said to be valued at $22bn by some investment banks in April – more than three times what it was worth when Sir Lucian Grainge took over as Chairman and CEO in 2011.
According to the IFPI, global recorded music industry revenues increased 5.9% in 2016, up to $15.7bn.Music Business Worldwide