MBW Views is a series of op-eds from eminent music industry people… with something to say. The following MBW op/ed comes from Mag Rodriguez, Founder/CEO, of superfan-focused platform EVEN.
Here, Rodriguez argues that Goldman Sachs’ latest Music in the Air report validates the case for direct-to-consumer, but may be too conservative in sizing the opportunity.
For ten years, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air report has helped the industry size itself, first making the case that streaming would bring the business back, then measuring its growth in subsequent reports.
This year’s edition, published October 15, frames the next decade around three key debates: generative AI, ad-supported streaming and direct-to-consumer (D2C). The third has attracted the least attention, but I believe may prove the most consequential.
Full disclosure: EVEN appears throughout that chapter. Goldman writes that “the commerce layer is most holistically represented by platforms like EVEN.”
More importantly, it validates three arguments we’ve been making for years.
The first is that D2C doesn’t cannibalize streaming. The concern was that selling music directly to fans before streaming would sacrifice streams, playlist momentum and algorithmic lift. Yet Goldman finds that artists running direct-to-fan windows ahead of a DSP release “appear to be growing total music revenue without any corresponding pullback in streaming activity.”
We’ve seen similar results. When Jessie Reyez offered A Little Vengeance directly to fans alongside its streaming release,with eight bonus tracks, digital sales rose 384% and physical sales 99% compared with her previous album, while first-week streams remained flat. The second is that fans will pay more when artists let them.
The industry has spent years debating a superfan tier: what it costs, which DSP moves first. Goldman finds that emerging D2C options are “stepping into opportunities that long-awaited ‘super premium tiers’ have meant to target.” Nearly half of fans voluntarily pay above the artist-set minimum.
Goldman’s earlier assumption, that superfans spend roughly twice what an average subscriber does now “increasingly looks conservative.” The superfan tier already exists. It just doesn’t have to live inside a streaming app.
The third is the one I care about most: D2C isn’t just a sales channel. It’s a release strategy and direct relationship with fans. Goldman points to chart eligibility through Luminate-certified sales, access to fan data and catalog monetization. A fan who buys a $7.99 digital album with early access tracks directly can come back for vinyl, a ticket, merchandise and future releases. The value is in the relationship, not just the transaction.
J. Cole’s The Fall-Off campaign shows how that relationship can extend into touring. Approximately 600,000 fans signed up through his site ahead of a tour presale that reportedly sold more than 800,000 tickets.
Where I think Goldman is being conservative is in sizing the opportunity. The report estimates digital D2C revenue at tens of millions of dollars today, potentially reaching hundreds of millions over the next decade. That’s a new category Goldman is tracking alongside the already substantial market for direct sales of vinyl, CDs and other physical products.
And I believe the digital opportunity alone could be much bigger. Goldman is already revising its superfan spending assumptions upward, and I expect the same will happen with digital D2C as the market matures. With all three major labels investing, this is no longer an experiment.
“Goldman is already revising its superfan spending assumptions upward, and I expect the same will happen with digital D2C as the market matures.”
Mag Rodriguez, EVEN
Consider the resurgence of iTunes. As the Financial Times recently reported, artists including Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, Charli XCX and Doja Cat have offered exclusive digital editions to superfans. It’s proof fans still buy music. But when they buy through a third-party storefront, the artist doesn’t own the customer relationship. The platform does.
Goldman also writes that the industry’s focus is shifting “from consumption growth toward monetization growth.” Streaming solved distribution. It did not give artists pricing power or a direct relationship with their fans. D2C gives artists greater control over both.
We launched EVEN in 2024 with that conviction. Seeing it reflected in Godman’s report isn’t just validation. It’s a sign that the conversation has shifted from whether D2C works to how broadly it can scale.Music Business Worldwide
