In September 2024, Universal Music Group issued new CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) guidance for the half-decade ahead.
Here are the three headlines from UMG’s targets:
- UMG said it expected its overall revenues to grow at a CAGR of 7%-plus (at constant currency) between FY2023 and FY2028;
- UMG said it expected its subscription streaming revenue to grow at a CAGR of somewhere between 8% to 10% (at constant currency) in the same period;
- UMG said it expected its adjusted EBITDA to grow by 10%-plus (at constant currency) during the same period.
The firm also expects its Free Cash Flow (FCF) conversion rate (before investment activity) to reach 60%-70%.
MBW has modeled out how, if they come true, UMG’s target CAGR numbers will affect its financial performance in the years ahead.
Importantly, in addition to the constant currency part of UMG’s forecast, its CAGR might not be constant – i.e. the firm may grow slower in some years and faster in others, and still meet its CAGR targets by the end of the period (FY2028).
Anyway, here’s how UMG’s annual fiscal performance would look if it consistently hit the lower end of its projected CAGR each year.

